These are the major findings of latest independent opinion poll/survey by Ma Mati Manush Blog carried throughout all 33 districts in Gujarat during 16th Feb’17 to 21st Nov’17. Actually some resurvey was done after 15th November which is after Hardik Patel sex clip goes viral, just to provide you the real picture.
Method of survey:
Our surveyors visited all 33 districts of Gujarat. They ask opinion from total 19834 people spreading upon all section, cast, age-groups of society.
According to Opinion Poll by MMM-Blog BJP is predicted to get 42% of vote share. Congress’ projection is 46% and the AAP just 2% & others 10%.
Congress is all set to win the election with 99 seats. BJP will be the close second with 80 seats. Others may get 2 seats & Independent just 1 seat.
(Margin of error is +- 14 seats for two major parties as in 23 seats we may see very close fight.)
We found an interesting contest is going on in Gujarat. BJP is trying hard for a sixth straight victory in the state, while Congress is striving for a comeback. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah‘s prestige is at stake in these elections.
Campaigning in Gujarat has also revealed an aggressive side of Rahul Gandhi who is trying to make a mark before donning the hat of the Congress President. Our survey is predicting a victory for the Congress so far.
New caste equations are taking shape in Gujarat as the state heads for assembly elections later this year.
Some new equations & leaders are also emerging in Gujarat.
Alpesh Thakor, an other backward castes (OBC) leader and convener of Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena joined the Congress.
Rahul Gandhi already said Patel leader Hardik Patel and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani have a voice, and this voice can’t be restrained or cannot be bought, as that voice is inside every Gujarati.
“Gujarat is priceless. It has never been bought. It can never be bought. It will never be bought,” Rahul Gandhi posted on Twitter.
Currently it’s clear that almost all new emerging leaders in Gujarat are supporting Congress.
The interesting fact about this assembly election is Patel and Dalit agitation. Patels and Dalits are not happy with BJP government as BJP failed to solve their reservation issue. Patels and Dalits accounts for 10% of Gujarat’s Population in last election Patels voted for BJP. From this time the party who will earn trust of Patels and Dalits during election campaign is likely to win Gujarat Assembly election 2017.
Most surprisingly presently only 17.6% people prefer Rupani as the chief minister of Gujarat.
Please note that popularity ratings which Modi enjoyed in 2012. 46.3% people preferred Modi as the chief ministerial candidate when the BJP had recorded 47.9% vote share in the elections.
As far as your blog can recall, no other incumbent chief minister and no other leader whose party went on to win the elections enjoyed such low popularity since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Even combining BJP leaders which include Rupani, Anandiben, Nitin Patel, Modi and Amit Shah, the party manages to get just 35% rating which is lower than the number of people who didn’t take any name (40%). This is also much lower than the predicted vote share of BJP at 42%.
MMM-Blog opinion poll survey also found that in urban areas BJP retaining their strongholds but in rural Gujarat they're loosing out badly.
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Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.